Office of the Director of National Intelligence published annual report of worldwide threats to the national security of the United States. This report reflects the collective insights of the Intelligence Community (IC), which is committed every day to providing the nuanced, independent, and unvarnished intelligence that policymakers, warfighters, and domestic law enforcement personnel need to protect American lives and America’s interests anywhere in the world.
During the coming year, the United States and its allies will confront a complex and pivotal international
security environment dominated by two critical strategic challenges that intersect with each other and
existing trends to intensify their national security implications. First, great powers, rising regional powers,
as well as an evolving array of non-state actors, will vie for dominance in the global order. Second, shared global challenges, including climate change, and human and health security, are converging as the planet emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic and confronts economic issues spurred by both energy and food insecurity.
China
China’s Communist Party (CCP) will continue efforts to achieve President Xi Jinping’s vision of making China the
preeminent power in East Asia and a major power on the world stage. As Xi begins his third term as China’s
leader, the CCP will work to press Taiwan on unification, undercut U.S. influence, drive wedges between
Washington and its partners, and foster some norms that favor its authoritarian system. At the same time, China’s
leaders probably will seek opportunities to reduce tensions with Washington when they believe it suits their
interests.
Russia
Moscow will remain a formidable and less predictable challenge to the United States in
key areas during the next decade but still will face a range of constraints. Russia will continue to pursue its
interests in competitive and sometimes confrontational and provocative ways, including by using military
force as it has against Ukraine and pressing to dominate other countries in the post–Soviet space to varying
extents.
Iran
Iran will continue to threaten U.S. interests as it tries to erode U.S. influence in the Middle East, entrench its
influence and project power in neighboring states, and minimize threats to the regime.
North Korea
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is continuing efforts to enhance North Korea’s nuclear and conventional
capabilities targeting the United States and its allies, which will enable periodic aggressive actions to try to reshape the regional security environment in his favor.
Climate Change
Climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to U.S. national security interests as the physical impacts increase and geopolitical tensions mount about the global response to the challenge. The increasing physical effects of climate change also are likely to intensify or cause domestic and cross-border geopolitical flashpoints.
Health Security
The COVID-19 pandemic remains one of the most significant threats to global public health, at a cost of more than 6.5 million lives lost and trillions of dollars in lost economic output to date.
Nuclear Weapons
The expansion of nuclear weapons stockpiles and their delivery systems, coupled with increasing regional conflict
involving nuclear weapons states, pose a significant challenge to global efforts to prevent the spread and use of
nuclear weapons.
Migration
In the Western Hemisphere, push and pull factors that drive migrants from Latin America and the Caribbean to the United States—such as deteriorating socioeconomic and security conditions in certain countries, misperceptions of U.S. policies, and employment opportunities in the United States—probably will persist through 2023.
Global Terrorism
U.S. persons and interests at home and abroad will face a persistent and increasingly diverse threat from terrorism during the next year. Individuals and cells adhering to ideologies espoused by ISIS, al-Qa‘ida, or the transnational Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists (RMVE) movement pose a significant terrorist threat to U.S. persons, facilities, and interests.
Read the full report on DNI
