By Joshua Kucera /Eurasianet/ – Azerbaijani forces advanced significantly into territory along the border with Armenia this week, sparking a security crisis in which Russia – Armenia’s treaty ally and the broker of the ceasefire agreement between the two sides – has taken a conspicuously passive role.
The details of precisely what happened remain unclear, but Armenia says that Azerbaijani forces on May 12 advanced up to 3.5 kilometers toward Armenia from their previous positions and crossed Armenia’s border. Azerbaijan responded with a statement that was delicate in its vagueness, acknowledging the advance but eliding the question of whether its forces crossed the border.
Whatever happened, though, it caught the world’s attention. The U.S. State Department issued a statement noting concern over “increased tensions along a non-demarcated portion of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border,” urging “restraint in de-escalating the situation peacefully.” France went farther; President Emmanuel Macron tweeted: “Azerbaijani armed forces have crossed into Armenian territory. They must withdraw immediately. I say again to the Armenian people: France stands with you in solidarity and will continue to do so.”
But the key power broker these days is Russia, which is a co-signer of the ceasefire agreement that ended last year’s war and which has deployed a 2,000-strong peacekeeping mission to the region. And thus far its response has been muted.
Armenia formally appealed to the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Russia-led political-military bloc that obliges member states to protect one another from external attack. The organization responded with a statement saying it was “closely following the developing situation” and that “as the situation develops, if necessary actions will be taken as stipulated in the collective security agreement.”
Russian officials, meanwhile, have been even more passive. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov – who had visited Yerevan and Baku in the last week – spoke with his counterparts in both countries to discuss the situation. “The importance of resolving all these sorts of incidents by exclusively political-diplomatic methods was noted,” the Russian MFA said in a statement following Lavrov’s talk with Armenian Foreign Minister Ara Ayvazyan. “Readiness to offer full support for the normalization of the situation in the South Caucasus was expressed.”
Russia’s modest response stood in contrast to the aggressive – and thus far unexplained – Azerbaijani advance. So what is Azerbaijan up to?
The story began on the morning of May 12, when reports emerged from local officials in and around Goris, in Armenia’s southern Syunik region. The reports – which were quickly debunked – claimed that there had been violent clashes between the two sides following an Azerbaijani assault, and that Armenian soldiers had been wounded. Officials in Yerevan were slow to respond and in the information vacuum, panic spread on Armenian social networks.
Ever since the war ended last November, Syunik has been the site of tension as Azerbaijani soldiers have taken up new positions in territory that they rewon during the war. That has brought them into close proximity with Armenian towns and roads, intimidating locals. Azerbaijani officials, starting from President Ilham Aliyev, have been fanning the flames by repeatedly arguing that Syunik – which they refer to using another name, Zangezur – is “historical Azerbaijani territory” and hinting at irredentist ambitions there.
Amid this heightened tension, news of troop movements led many Armenians to fear the worst. And that may have been Aliyev’s goal, said Richard Giragosian, the director of the Yerevan think tank Regional Studies Center.
“Just as with the sometimes exaggerated threat perception regarding Turkey, now the concern stems from Azerbaijan wanting Zangezur/Syunik. But Aliyev, on purpose, is contributing to this, he’s exacerbating it,” Giragosian told Eurasianet. “There is less danger of an outright Turkish invasion, but there is a sense that Azerbaijan is seeking more territory from Armenia proper. But it’s bluff and bluster and perception in Armenia matters as much as reality, and conspiracy theories are king.”
Finally, late in the evening, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed the issue following an emergency meeting of the National Security Council.
“Earlier today Azerbaijan’s armed forces crossed the state border of the Republic of Armenia and advanced as far as 3.5 kilometers in that section. In fact, they are trying to surround and siege [Sev] Lake,” a body of water that lies in the border region, Pashinyan said. But he added that Armenian forces were able to stop the advance without any shots being fired.
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