The United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union — an economic and political partnership of 28 countries — bringing to an end 46 years of British membership.
Brexit is set to be the most important constitutional shake-up the UK has known since it joined the six-nation European Economic Community in 1973, and represents the first time the European institution has lost a member.
The process has plunged the UK into its worst political and constitutional crisis since the Second World War. The country had been due to leave the EU on March 29, 2019, but the revised departure date is now October 31 after gridlock in parliament twice forced the government to seek an extension.
The delay forced the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May, now replaced by Boris Johnson. His stance in the early days of his premiership has led many to believe that a withdrawal deal with the EU may be all but impossible to achieve, raising the prospect of a disruptive UK departure with no agreement in place.
The UK voted to leave the EU by 52% to 48% in a June 2016 referendum. The result has increased strains between the UK’s individual countries: England (53%) and Wales (52.5%) voted to leave, whereas Scotland and Northern Ireland voted by 62% and 56% respectively to remain in the EU.
Described as largely an English nationalist project — although factors such as austerity and frustration with traditional politics undoubtedly came into play — Brexit plays into a wider debate concerning the role of the nation state in an age of globalisation. Many are concerned that it has shifted attention from major global challenges, not least the battle to contain climate change.
For many in Europe, the prospect of an institutionalised rift between the UK and the EU weakens the continent at a time when the likes of America, China and Russia are becoming increasingly assertive.
No-deal Brexit looms larger as new UK prime minister takes charge
The UK’s stance towards Brexit has taken on a distinctly harder edge with Boris Johnson inside Number 10 Downing Street, raising the likelihood that the country will leave the EU without a withdrawal deal in the autumn.
Despite the prime minister’s optimistic message that a new agreement can be struck with the EU — the odds on a no-deal Brexit are a “million to one”, he has said — both sides have become entrenched in their positions amid an intensifying blame game.
In late July a senior UK minister stated that the government was working on the assumption that the European Union would not renegotiate its Brexit deal. There are plans to ramp up no-deal preparations, with more funds promised.
Johnson took over the reins after winning the Conservative Party leadership contest. He signalled immediately a reinvigorated drive to take the UK out of the EU on October 31, “no ifs or buts”, and appointing prominent Brexiteers to key posts in his new cabinet.
He followed up with a demand for the Irish backstop to be removed from the negotiated withdrawal deal that was repeatedly rejected by the UK parliament — a demand that was quickly rebuffed by the EU.
The backstop is essentially an insurance policy to avoid a hard border — such as border posts — between Northern Ireland (part of the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (part of the EU), post-Brexit.
The withdrawal deal was negotiated by London and Brussels over an 18-month period and approved by the 27 other EU governments in November 2018 — before being rejected three times by the British parliament.
European leaders in the EU’s institutions and in national governments continue to insist the deal cannot be reopened. At their June summit — preoccupied with other priorities including renewing the EU’s top posts — they once again ruled out a renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement. It followed earlier warnings by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and several other national leaders.
Although they refuse to rewrite the terms of the UK’s exit — including controversial arrangements for the Irish border — EU leaders are more open to modifying an agreed framework for future ties.
The two sides’ positions appear hard to reconcile. The UK wants to keep many benefits from the existing arrangements but is intent on leaving the EU’s single market and customs union — and taking control of its money, borders and laws. The EU’s priority is to preserve the integrity of its single market, institutions and founding principles.
Can a no—deal Brexit be stopped?
If his attempt at renegotiation fails, Boris Johnson has repeatedly said he is determined to take the UK out of the EU without a deal this autumn — a stance which won him strong support among party’s members.
However, the government has only a slim majority in parliament — cut to one after a by-election defeat to the Liberal Democrats — and many MPs, even among the ruling Conservatives, vehemently oppose a “no-deal” Brexit.
Whether parliament can stop it from happening is uncertain. In July MPs approved a move to make it more difficult for prime minister to suspend parliament to force through no-deal.
It’s thought some pro-EU Tory MPs may be prepared to bring down their own government if faced with such a prospect. The Labour opposition has vowed to bring a no-confidence vote at some stage, and all eyes are on parliament’s return in early September.
Some parliamentarians are said to have been exploring ways to install a national unity government in its place. However, doubt has been cast over the likelihood of this happening given the diverse interests of opposition parties. Downing Street advisers have reportedly hinted that the prime minister would refuse to stand aside even if the vote was lost.
Instead, the focus has shifted to potential moves by MPs to force the government to ask the EU formally for another extension of the UK’s membership. It’s not certain that European leaders — who would need to approve such a move unanimously — would do so for a third time.
The government’s weak position has increased speculation that a general election will be held in the autumn. But time is tight given the Brexit deadline in October. It’s thought the Johnson government may seek to delay any public vote until after the UK has already left the EU.
The heightened uncertainty amid a winter of British political turmoil forced the UK and the EU, as well as people and businesses on both sides of the English Channel, to step up no-deal preparations ahead of the original March deadline. Such plans are on course to be revived in the run-up to October.
A no-deal exit would immediately alter trading and many other arrangements between the UK and the EU, including the rights of British and European citizens. It would hit the UK’s economy but also those of its closest neighbours on the continent — and particularly the island of Ireland, where the survival of a hard-fought peace accord is at stake after decades of political violence.
The key dates ahead:
August 24—26: G7 summit of industrialised nations in Biarritz, the next scheduled occasion when UK PM Boris Johnson will meet other EU leaders.
September 3: UK parliament returns after summer recess.
September 29 — October 2: the Conservative Party conference takes place a month before the UK’s revised EU exit date.
October 17—18: the last scheduled EU summit before Brexit day.
October 31: the new date when the UK is due to leave the EU.
