British MPs on Tuesday triggered a vote that could allow them to stop Boris Johnson pursuing a “no-deal” Brexit, a challenge that the government warned would prompt the prime minister to seek an election on Oct. 14.
More than three years after the United Kingdom voted in a referendum to leave the European Union, the outcome of the Brexit crisis remains uncertain, with possible outcomes ranging from a turbulent no-deal exit to abandoning the whole endeavour.
Despite a warning that Johnson would seek an election if they tied his hands over Brexit, a bloc of opposition lawmakers and rebels in Johnson’s party defied him with what they cast as an effort to stop an economically ruinous no-deal departure.
That set up an historic showdown between prime minister and parliament in a country once touted as a confident pillar of Western economic and political stability. Sterling flirted briefly with some of its lowest levels since 1985.
“This is parliament’s last chance to block a no-deal exit on the 31st of October,” Oliver Letwin, who led the attempt to thwart Johnson’s Brexit gamble, told parliament.
Opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said lawmakers were seeking to prevent Johnson “playing Russian roulette with this country’s future.”
On parliament’s first day back from its summer break, they put forward a motion to grab control of parliament on Wednesday – a step that, after a debate granted by the speaker, was to go to a House of Commons vote at around 2000-2100 GMT on Tuesday.
If lawmakers are granted control of the parliamentary business, they will seek on Wednesday to pass a law that would force Johnson to ask the EU to delay Brexit for three months until Jan. 31, 2020 unless he has a deal approved by parliament, or parliament agrees to a no-deal Brexit.
“BREXIT SURRENDER”
Johnson cast the challenge as an attempt to force Britain to surrender to the EU just as he hopes to secure concessions on the terms of the divorce – a step he said he would never accept.
“It means running up the white flag,” Johnson said. “It is a bill that, if passed, would force me to go to Brussels and beg an extension. It would force me to accept the terms offered. It would destroy any chance of negotiation for a new deal.”
Just as Johnson began speaking, he lost his working majority in parliament when one of his own Conservative lawmakers, Phillip Lee, crossed the floor of the House of Commons to join the pro-EU Liberal Democrats.
Labour’s Corbyn told parliament that Johnson’s was a government with “no mandate, no morals and, as of today, no majority”.
In the eye of the Brexit maelstrom, it was unclear if opposition parties would support any move to call an election – which requires the support of two-thirds of the 650-seat House of Commons.
The Labour Party’s chief enforcer said the party would not allow Johnson to manipulate an election to force through a no-deal Brexit, a source said.
The pound, which has gyrated to the twists and turns of Brexit since the 2016 Brexit referendum and is highly sensitive to the prospect of a “no-deal” exit, briefly dipped as low as $1.1959 GBP=D3. Barring a minutes-long “flash crash” in October 2016, sterling has not regularly traded at such low levels since 1985.
NO-DEAL BREXIT
Fears of an abrupt “no-deal” Brexit were rising elsewhere.
The European Commission said such a scenario was a “very distinct possibility” and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said it was the most likely scenario.
The U.N. trade agency UNCTAD said it would cost Britain at least $16 billion in lost exports to the EU, plus a further substantial sum in indirect costs.
U.S. Vice President Mike Pence used a visit to Ireland on Tuesday to urge the European Union to negotiate with Britain “in good faith”.
The 2016 Brexit referendum showed a United Kingdom divided about much more than the European Union, and has fuelled soul-searching about everything from secession and immigration to capitalism, empire and modern Britishness.
It has also triggered civil war inside both of Britain’s main political parties as dozens of lawmakers put what they see as the United Kingdom’s fate above that of party loyalty.
As Johnson played Brexit chess with lawmakers, opponents cast his tactics as undemocratic, including an order to suspend parliament for more than a month beginning next week. That has been followed by his threat to kick rebels out of the ruling party – some of them ex-ministers who left the cabinet just weeks ago.
“I think we will have the numbers,” said one of the rebels, former finance minister Philip Hammond. “Prime Minister Johnson has always intended that there will be an election.”
The government has effectively turned the challenge into a confidence vote by making clear that if the government were defeated, it would hold a vote on Wednesday to approve an early election, most likely to be held on Oct. 14.
The U.S. investment bank JPMorgan said an election would make a no-deal Brexit more likely.
