RIAC Working Paper: Russian Policy in the Middle East: Dividends and Costs of the Big Game
Russia’s interests in the Middle East are determined by a complex set of objective factors combined with subjective ones like the specific features of its self-perception and self-positioning on the international stage. These interests are fairly general in nature and boil down to containing challenges to national security and searching for opportunities for stable socioeconomic development.
Russia’s geostrategic interests reflected the idea of the country’s return to the world stage as a great power. Moscow showed that it is indispensable in the global fight against international terrorism, and this could contribute to improving relations with the West, which have been going through a rough time. Compared with such an irritant as Ukraine, where the development of the domestic situation
and the policies of outside actors led to an inevitable clash between the Russian and western approaches, the Middle East did not look toxic and could even serve as a platform for coordinating efforts. The region was not a site of ideological and political battles (even given different approaches), and the United States and other countries in the West did not view Russia’s policies here as a radical challenge, since the preferences of local states seemed to have been long set and could not undergo any major adjustments. Most regimes seemed to be firmly pro-Western, while Russia’s military, political and economic capabilities – indicators of its political success – were significantly below those of the United States and its allies.
Russia’s regional interests included counteracting major challenges (transnational terrorism, “regime change” policies) and steering a course for developing trade ties, attracting investment, gaining access to the arms market and influencing oil prices.
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